Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-25 1.469668 1.534167 1.601112 1.676004 1.757721 1.844490 1.943998
2026-02-01 1.382562 1.467723 1.559005 1.664772 1.784790 1.917788 2.077801
2026-02-08 1.317859 1.416109 1.523926 1.652192 1.802228 1.974278 2.189714
2026-02-15 1.265175 1.372517 1.492534 1.638400 1.813382 2.019991 2.287990
2026-02-22 1.231279 1.347182 1.478973 1.642328 1.842984 2.086663 2.414005
2026-03-01 1.182428 1.301469 1.438443 1.610625 1.825797 2.092622 2.460754
2026-03-08 1.144446 1.266535 1.408557 1.589429 1.819158 2.109797 2.521425
2026-03-15 1.114395 1.239569 1.386676 1.576364 1.821085 2.136826 2.595895
2026-03-22 1.103933 1.235451 1.391936 1.596798 1.866266 2.222660 2.758760
2026-03-29 1.097968 1.236258 1.402849 1.624318 1.921510 2.324966 2.954675
2026-04-05 1.077206 1.217935 1.388913 1.618659 1.931339 2.363873 3.057642
2026-04-12 1.060285 1.203726 1.379476 1.618172 1.947699 2.412422 3.179522
2026-04-19 1.030540 1.173143 1.348848 1.589202 1.924242 2.403045 3.209449
2026-04-26 1.011161 1.155060 1.333633 1.580166 1.928144 2.434148 3.309581
2026-05-03 0.992160 1.136877 1.317627 1.569264 1.928551 2.459522 3.401966
2026-05-10 0.973656 1.118805 1.301156 1.556964 1.926091 2.479896 3.487102
2026-05-17 0.962699 1.110058 1.296535 1.560640 1.946869 2.537645 3.646986
2026-05-24 0.939411 1.084809 1.269373 1.531846 1.917915 2.513472 3.647867
2026-05-31 0.920856 1.065326 1.249418 1.512557 1.902416 2.510270 3.689372
2026-06-07 0.905967 1.050302 1.235036 1.500654 1.897513 2.524086 3.766231
2026-06-14 0.903349 1.051227 1.242012 1.519286 1.940017 2.619975 4.025220
2026-06-21 0.903189 1.055313 1.253269 1.544348 1.993626 2.739079 4.356462
2026-06-28 0.892153 1.044690 1.244107 1.539198 1.998957 2.773085 4.500399